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European Union Politics
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Who Is Powerful?

Examining Preferences and Testing Sources of Bargaining Strength at European Intergovernmental Conferences

Jonathan B. Slapin

University of California, Los Angeles, USA

Previous studies have proposed competing theories to explain European intergovernmental conference (IGC) outcomes, but they fail to test these theories against one another. I examine the literature on IGC bargaining and derive several testable hypotheses. Using data on member state preferences at the IGC leading to the Treaty of Amsterdam, I first examine which member states favor integration and which are most skeptical of integration. I also determine which member states face the highest domestic ratification constraints. I then test the competing hypotheses found in the literature by calculating the bargaining strength of member states. I find that large member states have no more bargaining strength than the average member state; instead, domestic ratification constraints seem to confer power. States preferring less integration appear to outperform states desiring more integration. Supranational actors, as expected, have little power.

Key Words: intergovernmental conference • ratification constraints • spatial models • Treaty of Amsterdam • two-level games

European Union Politics, Vol. 7, No. 1, 51-76 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/1465116506060912
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